As I was listening to a member of Congress saying something on the radio this morning, it occurred to me that the more online sources (wikileaks.com for example) or news stories, or previous statements in newspapers aggregated by online services, or twitter postings or for some people, foursquare.com checkins… The more this info is out there, the harder it becomes to LIE, to say misleading and untruthful things.

Perversely, however, this means that those (sociopaths?) who are able to lie convincingly, with impunity, and/or can use these sources for misdirection, will become much more powerful. The more powerful the perceived environment for lying becomes, the more powerful the gifted few who can do it well. One of the most important gifts for these people may be that of justification/convincing themselves that what they are doing is ultimately for the good… And unfortunately, though it would be nice to believe they will get found out or nipped in the long-run, we know that’s not necessarily true.

Reversion to the mean helps us understand that long streaks of good fortune, on average will not persist. But just as a run of 6 heads in a row doesn’t by itself constitute an unfair coin, so luck and self-delusion can sustain liars for far longer than we can always predict.