While the other Republican presidential nominee candidates for 2012 have a real sameness about them, Ron Paul stands out. Whether that is because, as someone noticed on Quora, his supporters seem to like Star Trek, or for other reasons, social media like/interest data from optim.al (and their new SocialPredict data product) clearly highlights some of the differences. Click on the image to expand:

You’ll notice that Ron Paul supporters like not only Star Trek and William Shatner, but the Colbert Report, Christopher Walken and Guinness. And of course let’s not forget our trusty favorite defender-of-liberty Jack Bauer. However, there are other more real “science-y” things in there that people who like Ron Paul also like – Modern Marvels, the Science Channel, evolution and “the Universe”.

By contrast, Mitt Romney, Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich are so close to one another in terms of their audience’s interests and likes that they are almost indistinguishable in the interest graph. Rick Santorum is much closer to them but still a little less same. Zoom in on the chart as it makes for some fascinating reading.

As I was listening to a member of Congress saying something on the radio this morning, it occurred to me that the more online sources (wikileaks.com for example) or news stories, or previous statements in newspapers aggregated by online services, or twitter postings or for some people, foursquare.com checkins… The more this info is out there, the harder it becomes to LIE, to say misleading and untruthful things.

Perversely, however, this means that those (sociopaths?) who are able to lie convincingly, with impunity, and/or can use these sources for misdirection, will become much more powerful. The more powerful the perceived environment for lying becomes, the more powerful the gifted few who can do it well. One of the most important gifts for these people may be that of justification/convincing themselves that what they are doing is ultimately for the good… And unfortunately, though it would be nice to believe they will get found out or nipped in the long-run, we know that’s not necessarily true.

Reversion to the mean helps us understand that long streaks of good fortune, on average will not persist. But just as a run of 6 heads in a row doesn’t by itself constitute an unfair coin, so luck and self-delusion can sustain liars for far longer than we can always predict.