Comments on: Mega-Millions Lottery up to $252 Million http://zeronomy.com/probability/mega-millions-lottery-up-to-252-million exploring the evolutionary economy of ideas, time and money Sat, 05 Mar 2011 06:35:46 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1 By: robbo97 http://zeronomy.com/probability/mega-millions-lottery-up-to-252-million#comment-40 robbo97 Thu, 27 Aug 2009 05:29:52 +0000 http://zeronomy.com/?p=20#comment-40 Looks like nobody won the previous jackpot, so redoing the analysis and updating the figures (using a more precise 19.7% weighted chance of winning another prize) I get to an expected value of 0.9894 This assumes that there are 146 million tickets sold ~ which I factor from the estimated new jackpot vs. the previous one, meaning an 83% chance that someone wins the jackpot! So I just bought 50 tickets - and I can expect to win $49.47 ... pretty much odds as good as I think we'll see for a while. I'll let you know how it turns out! Looks like nobody won the previous jackpot, so redoing the analysis and updating the figures (using a more precise 19.7% weighted chance of winning another prize) I get to an expected value of 0.9894

This assumes that there are 146 million tickets sold ~ which I factor from the estimated new jackpot vs. the previous one, meaning an 83% chance that someone wins the jackpot!

So I just bought 50 tickets – and I can expect to win $49.47 … pretty much odds as good as I think we’ll see for a while.

I’ll let you know how it turns out!

]]> By: Twitted by robleathern http://zeronomy.com/probability/mega-millions-lottery-up-to-252-million#comment-37 Twitted by robleathern Tue, 25 Aug 2009 05:47:28 +0000 http://zeronomy.com/?p=20#comment-37 [...] This post was Twitted by robleathern [...] [...] This post was Twitted by robleathern [...]

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