It might be a little early for “end of year” trends type posts, but following on Jay Weintraub’s excellent dissection of the flog trend from a few months ago, 2009 may be the year of the affiliate blog website (with the fake blog and fake news site being the most popular). I thought it would be interesting to share this list of weight loss flogs. Jay warned me not to visit these sites since some of the creators have since shut them down and replaced them with forwards to not-so-good sites apparently. I didn’t see if that was the case :-). The source for these sites is Nielsen/NetRatings (non-disclaimer, I used to work for NetRatings but did not work there long enough to have any stock, and I guess this list just shows you they don’t discriminate which is good for a market researcher…)

1flatstomachrule.com
1weightlosssecret.info
2-Rules-to-Flat-Stomach
2xFatBurningPlan.com
Abbydietjournal.com
AbbysDietJournal.com
AbbysDietStoryBlog.com
AdrianaLostWeight.com
AdrianasWeightLoss.com
AlanasWeightLoss.com
Aleshasdietblog.com
alicesdiet.com
AlisasWeightLoss.com
Alisonsweightloss.com
Allison’s Weight Loss
ALLY’S WEIGHT LOSS DIARY
Allysweightlossblog.com
Alyssa’s Rachel Ray Diet Blog
Amazing Brazilian Diet Pill
Amazon Diet
AmbersDietBlog.com
AmbersDietSuccess.com
Amy’s Diet Blog
Amysdietjournal.com
AmysDietSecret.com
AmysWeightLossDiary.com
Andreas Weight Loss Blog
Andreasdietblog.com
AngieWeightLoss.com
Anniesdietstory.com
Anniesweightblog.com
AnnsWeightLoss.com
AprilsWeightLoss.com
Ariana’s Diet Blog
Ashley’s Rachael Ray Diet Blog
ashleysdietblog
AshleysWeightLoss.com
Autumn’s Weight Loss
Ava’s Diet Blog
BeckysDiet.com
BeckysWeightLoss.net
Best-diet-picks.com
Beth’s Diet Plan
BethsDietBlog.com
BetsysWeightLoss.com
Beverly’s Diet Journal
Bevsdietblog.com
BiancasWeightLoss.com
BriansWeightLossDiary.com
BridgetsWeightLoss.com
Brigette’s Diet Blog
Britney’s WeightLoss Story
Brittanysdietstory.com
BrittanysWeightLoss.com
candicediet.com
Carasdietdiary.com
CarlasWeightLoss.com
CassidysWeightLoss.com
CathysDietBlog.com
CelebrityWeightLossSecret.com
Celine’s Weight Loss Blog and Tracker
cherylsweightloss.com
Christysdiet.com
Cindiesweightloss.com
claudiasweightloss.info
CRISTIESDIETBLOG.COM
DaniellesWeightLoss.com
DanielsWeightLoss.com
Dani’s Weight Loss Blog
DebbysDietBlog.com
DebrasDiet.com
DebrasWeightLoss.com
Denisesdiet.com
DestinysWeightLoss.com
DietingMother.com
Dietstoryblog.com
Diet-To-Go
Dinasweightloss.com
DonnaDailyDiet.com
DonnasWeightLoss.com
Double-Diet.net
DrOzDietSecrets.com
Easydiettips.org
EasyWeightlossTea.com
ElensWeightLoss.com
Elisa’s Weight Loss
elisasbellyfatlossblog.com
ElizabethsWeightLoss.com
EllensDietBlog.com
ElliesWeightLoss.com
EmilysWeightLoss.com
EmmasWeightLoss.com
EmmasWeightLossSuccess.com
ErinWeightLoss.com
Evasdietblog.com
gloriasweightlossblog.com
Heather’s Diet Log
helensdiet.com
HelensDietDiary.com
HollysWeightLoss.com
HotCelebDiet.com
image weightloss centers
Jane’s Weight Loss Secret
Janesdiet.org
JeaniesWeightLoss.com
JennasDietBlog.com
JennasWeightLoss.com
Jennifer’s Weight Loss Story
jenniferweightloss.com
Jenns Weight Loss
JennsWeightLoss.com
jennylosesweight.com
JennyLostWeight.com
Jenny’s Diet Blog
Jenny’s Weight Loss Success
JennysDietBlog.com
Jenny-weightloss.com
Jen’s Diet Blog
JensWeightLossStory.com
Jessicas-Diet.com
jessiesdietblog.com
jesssdietblog.com
Jilliansdietjournal.com
Jill’s Weight Loss Story
JillsWeightloss.com
JillsWeightLossBlog.com
JoycesWeightLoss.com
Judy’s Weight Loss
JudysWeight.com
JudysWeightLoss.com
Juliasweightlossblog.com
juliesdietblog.com
Justinsweightloss.com
Kailey’s Weight Loss
Karen’s Weight Loss
KarensWeightLoss.com
Karenweightstruggle.com
KatesDietStory.com
KathyLostWeight.com
Kathy’s Diet Success
Katie’s Weight Loss
KatiesWeightlossDiary.com
KatysWeightLoss.com
Kaylasdietplan.com
KayleesWeightLoss.com/Blog
KaysDiet.com
KaysWeightLoss.com
Kellysdietingjournal.com
KellysWeightDairy.com
KellysWeightDiary.com
KellysWeightLossStory.com
Kelseyhowardweightloss.com
KelseysWeightLoss.com
KimbysWeightLoss.com
Kim’s Diet
Kim’s Rachael Ray Diet Blog
kimsdietplan com
KimsFatLoss.com
Kyla’s Weight Loss
LarrysWeightLoss.com
Laura’s Weight Loss
Laura’s Weight Loss
LaurenWeightLoss.com
LeahWeightLossBlog.com
LilysWeightLossBlog.com
lindas-diet.com
Lisa’s Weight Loss
LisaWeightLoss.com
Lorrie’s Weight Loss Story
Losing Weight Gaining Life
LostWeightDieting.com
Lucysweightloss.com
MadelinesWeightoLoss.com
MariasDietBlog.com
mariasdietstory.com
Mariasweightlossblog.com
Marie’s weight loss secret
MarlenasWeightLoss.com
Mary’s Weight Loss Blog
Marysdietblog.com
Medical Weight Loss Clinic
Megan’s Diet Diary
MegansWeightLossRecipe.com
Megsdoublediet.com
Melissas Weight Loss Diet
Meloras Weight Loss
Melsdietblog.com
Mica’s Weightloss Blog
MichellesWeightLoss.com
midietaincreible.com
Mikeacaidiet.com
Mike’s Diet Blog
MindysDietBlog.com
Molly’s Diet Blog
MollysWeightLossJourney.com
MommysWeightLoss.com
Momsdiettips.com
Momsweightjournal.com
monica’s weight loss
MonicasDiet.com
MonicasDietBlog.com
MyDietMagic.com
MyDietRevealed.com
MyDoubleDiet.com
Mypersonalweightlossblog.com
Mysecretstofastweightloss.com
mysecrettolosingweight.com
myweightlossblog.net
MyWeightLossLife.com
Natalia’s Weight Loss Story
netDietMD.com
Newcelebdiet.com
nichollesdietpage.info
NichollesWeightLoss.com
OliviasDietBlog.com
Onegirlsweightloss.com
Oregon Weight Loss Surgery
RachaelRaydiets.com
RachelDietWorks.com
Rachel’s Weight Loss
Renee’s Weight loss story
SarahsWeightLoss.com
Saras Weight Loss Story
SarasWeightLoss.com
savannahsweightloss.com
ShelbysWeightLoss.com
Sherriesweightloss.com
SmartDiets.com
Sofia’s Weight loss
SofiesWeightLoss.com
SophiasWeightLoss.com
SouthwestWeightLoss.com
Susana-Weight-Loss.com
SusansWeightChallenge.com
Therachelraydiet.com
thisgirlsweightloss.com
Tinasdietstory.com
TracysDiet.com
TracysWeightLoss.com
TrueDietStory.com
Veronica’s Weight Loss Blog
Victoria’s Rachel Ray Diet Blog
Victoriasweightloss.com
viviansweightloss.com

Don’t try to add yahoo.com as a website targeting option in Adwords (placement targeting) or the new Google/Doubleclick exchange. If you try to add yahoo.com to a campaign you will see a screenshot similar to this.

Google will allow you to add all other 199 sites in the Quantcast top 200, including Microsoft.com, Bing.com, Facebook.com and others (even google.com). Looks like some engineers were having some fun. It seems silly to single one site out among a large variety of ones, friend and foe alike.

A great saying in Afrikaans is “goedkoop koop, is duur koop“, or sometimes shortened to “goedkoop is duur koop” or similar. What it basically says is that buying cheap stuff, is expensive. For the online marketing folk among us, this has often turned out to be the case. If you are looking to buy cheap media, leads or customers, it is often an expensive and frustrating experience. Michael Arrington/Techcrunch’s attack on Offerpal Media and the immense revenue that is currently being generated by driving offers to advertisers that are at best of questionable value to consumers, of questionable quality to marketers and at worst, deceptive and fraudulent.

Niki Scevak had a great post some months ago on the “Impending Doom of Facebook Apps” that should be required reading for assessing this issue, which Techcrunch is continuing to pursue and rightly so.

I agree with Niki that a lot of this short-term revenue will and should be going away. Companies like Tatto Media getting taken to task and to court, and paying hundreds of thousands of dollars to Attornies General while continuing to running questionable mobile offers: it’s clear that this kind of fine is just a drop in the bucket to them. I’d heard from someone running the MyLuvCrush ads describe it as “crack cocaine”. Tatto has pumped a lot of that money into tradeshow booth dollars at Ad:Tech and other shows in an attempt to build a legit “behavioral marketing” business as discussed here (using Flash cookies, which are becoming a bit of a privacy third rail currently and as many companies are moving away from this technology for that reason as moving toward it). But I digress…

The quality of these kinds of leads is the same as what we saw a few years ago when the incentivized “free ipod” type of offers became prevalent — and especially for so-called “soft” or “semi-hard” offers (where there is no credit card hit which means the user is paying for an offer or as opposed to something like Netflix they can cancel before a trial period is up) like inquiries for an insurance or mortgage quote, these incentivized offers became a bad joke in the lead generation industry and caused a lot of issues for companies that bought, resold and tried to pretend these had the same quality as leads generated directly from display or search ads. Cheaper leads? Oh yes. But given that a lot of these “leads” ended up in call centers taking up someone’s time to call, they had a real cost that was a bit harder to assess directly but made them really expensive.

On the other hand - some companies don’t care since enough of the time they’re going to charge your credit card and make some money off of you. Take the example of the options for a game player in Farmville on Facebook to get more Farmcash. Lots of offers as options including the mentioned Blockbuster/Netflix ones. Or you could try this one:

A big asterisk next to the word free - uh oh? What does that mean? Well there’s nothing on this page with an asterisk, so let’s look at the next page. On the landing page it says “*Pay up to $9.95 (or $9.95 USD in Canada) for shipping & processing.” But wait, there’s more! Read on and it says:

ANY TWO of the three computer tutorial CD-ROMs are yours free without further obligation, PERIOD. Take 10 days to decide if you want to keep the complete set of CDs. After your 10-day free trial, if you decide to keep the complete Lesson Suite, we’ll conveniently bill your credit card just $189.95 USD . Simply follow the instructions in your package for your free camera. Or simply call Customer Care at 1-800-519-4110 if you decide to return any one of the discs. You will be charged nothing more, and get to keep two computer learning CD-ROMS! You can also return everything within 10 days and receive a full shipping & processing refund upon your request.

Ah so not so free eh? Well okay, so not everyone is a cheap date. Which means that people signing up for offers will tend to go for the easier to get out of, the simpler ones… and that’s the issue.

Ultimately, cheap leads and cheap media often turn out to be more expensive than companies think at first - and often it is because the path to true conversion is more convoluted, which for leads often happens off the web in a call center or during a longer cycle. And not just for the vendors - as we can see from this incident, a promising set of ideas (virtual currency, offers in exchange for money to developers) can be tainted by the stink of cheap, shitty leads that unsustainably and temporarily fuel an advertising micro-economy.

I did a quick search in Google news and found this headline, which caught my attention quickly as it could have a pejorative slant with respect to Chinese-made stuff (which I would suggest is totally wrong-headed considering the volume and diversity of stuff made in China, or in any country really):

Cables snap and close SF Bay Bridge. Are cables made in China?

As my former colleague and advisor, Jerry Neumann says - there is no starting gun. Go and start a company now. It’s not as hard to get started as you think, and there is no such thing as failure.

A few books I’ve read recently (and some not so recently) about randomness, probability, human behavior, ALL of which are worth looking at:

Fooled by Randomness by Nicholas Taleb. Instant classic, the followup Black Swan is great too but this is better IMO.

The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives by Leonard  Mlodinow. Great stuff, some great examples and overall I enjoyed it very much - good lay pieces on probability and misunderstandings around that.

Here are some others I recommend highly:

Predictably Irrational:The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions

Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me): Why We Justify Foolish Beliefs, Bad Decisions, and Hurtful Acts
Traffic: Why We Drive the Way We Do (and What It Says About Us)

Awesome stuff, all.

Yikes - another newspaper site getting a bit discombobulated. This is what the Washington Post looks like today after Siemens got a hold of it…. this was in IE. Firefox looked similar so not a browser-specific issue.

Great piece by Jay Weintraub borders on rant but makes very good points as he lets rip on Google. Alas it is true but there is a lot to criticize.

Anytime I or any individual criticizes Google, it requires a delicate balance, because a single voice against an established system always struggles not to sound like whiny and scorned. When a system becomes ingrained and accepted, dissenting voices get marginalized and those with dissent often relegated to the same category as conspiracy theorists.

As Jay points out, Google still doesn’t get advertising, despite hype to the contrary and billions in revenue. But that as they say, is a story for another day.

Well someone screwed up. It happens, and goodness knows perhaps this might actually increase the response rates on your ads — but probably not. If anyone at Starwood wants to know why this ad is not working that well, it’s either the fault of:

a) The Chicago Sun-Times team, or

b) Whoever trafficks their ads, or

c) Advertising.com, the ad network who ran this ad on the page, or

d) The agency who Starwood is having run their ads (dunno who that is), or

e) Someone at Starwood trafficked it incorrectly…?

In any event - what you have is a 160×600 showing up in a 728×90 spot, and showing just enough skin for you to know it’s an ad for Westin. The URL it clicks through to (yes that does work) is http://www.starwoodpromos.com/westin-mastercard/&EM=Q3Q4_NAD_MEDIA_WS_EN_MASTERCARD

I don’t have a lot of readers, but I’d love to see the comments about where this actually got screwed up

I just got a message on LinkedIn literally four years to the day after someone I thought I went to high school with joined the high school LinkedIn group we had set up. It was coincidentally during the time I used to work at LinkedIn. His message now says he doesn’t know who I am. He is in the Netherlands and I went to high school in South Africa.

It only took four years for him to reply - I wonder if he would have known me four years ago but doesn’t now? Or if he is totally the wrong person and per chance he applied to join our group? Weird stuff.